Event Report

Let's Meet a Scientist! Permanent Exhibition "Earth Environment and Me" Opening Memorial Series Vol. 4: Designing Year 2050

To discuss what 2050 means is to think about today!

The talk event with researcher Mr. Junichi Fujino was held on a cold day with visitors exceeding the capacity of 40 people. At the event, overall predictions and countermeasures concerning global warming due to human activity were addressed. Here, the "inertia" held by Earth's environment was noted as a major point. Participants were surprised to hear the influence of global warming and the necessity of reconsidering the effects of countermeasures over a scale from several hundred to several thousand years.

Mr. Fujino introduced his research on a social scenario that greatly reduces Japan's CO2 emission in 2050 as he cited the event title "Designing Year 2050." As in other risk predictions, the risks of global warming also has a gap in the prediction of the percentage of its growth and its influence. However, if we could come to an agreement and determine the range of risks that must be avoided, it was indicated that the current and mid-term target could be determined based on the back calculation method known as backcasting.

Through research, two scenarios for Japan in 2050 have been developed. One scenario emphasizes economic growth and comfort with the development and the dissemination of science and technology while the other scenario emphasizes the values of sufficiency and savings. These scenarios were influenced by backcalculation (a statistical method) to develop these differing future images. However, both scenarios envision cutting 70% of CO2 emission amount in comparison to that created in 1990. The audience posed questions about the possibility of combining the two scenarios. Certainly, it is possible to come up with numerous options, even considering scenarios that actualize a 70% cutback. Yet based on the scenarios developed through the research, stimulation of discussion related to our eventual future society is expected.

Later in the presentation, discussion took place with participants concerning what is required to design and actualize 2050. Using the example of recycling issues concerning plastics, the importance of system design and the necessity of information sharing with consumers and participating citizens were discussed. Furthermore, the evaluation method for systems expected to be widely discussed in the future, rights concerning selection of environmental technology such as energy, and burden sharing methods for these kinds of costs were raised as topics, and questions and related contentions were gathered. 

At the close of the event, anticipation towards government, business and industry, national consumers and the science communities to actualize the society we aim for in 2050 were discussed. Such feedback as the following was noted:

* For government, leadership and determination, manifested by policies that timely reflect the will of the people, are necessary.
* For industries, transition of values and activities should be based on a long-term vision.
* For citizens, a discussion based on problems and an understanding of the costs of environmental countermeasure is important.
* For science communities, transmission of information that can be trusted and increased choices in our lives through technological development are optimal.

2050 seems quite far away now. However, the discussion toward the actualization of that momentous timeframe makes us think about the decisions and actions we must take at this moment.

Active discussions with the participants made the 90 minutes talk event quite successful. After the event, questions were presented to Mr. Fujino and we have received requests for a sequel presentation. An attendee survey showed that 80% found the information interesting, 70% felt the event was understandable and over 80% made requests for more of this kind of discussion based event. Motivated by these kinds of responses, we hope to further expand the opportunity for discussion and agreement toward solutions as we deal with issues where science and technology strongly relate.


Person in charge: Yasuhiko Ishikawa (Science Communicator of the National Museum of Emerging Science and Innovation)